Pertamax Fuel Sales Predicted to Drop 10 Percent After Price Hike

Pertamax Fuel Sales Projected to Decline 10% Following Price Adjustment

Pertamax Fuel Sales Predicted to Drop 10 - In a recent analysis, Yayan Satyakti, an economics professor at Indonesia’s Padjadjaran University, predicted a notable shift in consumer behavior after the recent price increase for Pertamax fuel. According to his projection, approximately 10% of Pertamax users are expected to transition to Pertalite, a more affordable alternative, as a direct response to the higher cost. This estimate is grounded in historical data from April 2022, when a 39% surge in Pertamax prices led to a similar trend, with roughly one in eight buyers opting for Pertalite instead.

“Based on the April 2022 experience, where Pertamax prices rose by 39% and about 12.5% of consumers moved to Pertalite, we anticipate a 10% drop in Pertamax sales,” stated Yayan, as reported by Antara on June 14, 2026. He emphasized that the price hike would not curb people’s travel habits but would instead drive them toward cheaper options. “Individuals will continue their usual routines, but the financial burden will push them toward switching fuels,” he added.

The price of Pertamax (RON 92), which previously cost Rp12,300 per liter, has now climbed to Rp16,250 per liter. In contrast, Pertalite maintains its stable price at Rp10,000 per liter. This disparity of Rp6,250 per liter is considered substantial by Yayan, who argued that the difference would significantly influence consumer decisions. Despite this, he noted that the Pertalite quota is still adequate to manage the anticipated demand shift. “Only roughly one-third of the remaining Pertalite supply will be consumed as a result of this transition,” he explained.

Economic Impact on Different Socioeconomic Groups

Yayan’s research also delved into the varying effects of the Pertamax price hike across Indonesia’s income brackets, which are categorized under the government’s welfare ranking system—Desil 1 to Desil 10. For the lowest-income households, or Desil 1, the impact is expected to be minimal. “These groups rarely use Pertamax, so their monthly expenses will remain largely unchanged,” he remarked. However, the middle-class population, classified as Desil 5-7, may face more noticeable adjustments. “A portion of this demographic will likely switch to Pertalite, as the cost difference is significant for their budgets,” he said.

“For households in the upper middle class, such as those in Desil 8-9, the transition will be more pronounced. These groups often own private vehicles and use Pertamax regularly, so the price increase will directly affect their expenses,” Yayan highlighted. He further pointed out that the wealthiest 20% of households, or Desil 10, will carry the greatest financial strain. “This segment is the most vulnerable, as their reliance on Pertamax is tied to frequent travel and operational needs,” he added.

Yayan’s analysis revealed that the price hike acts as a regressive tax, disproportionately burdening higher-income groups. “The shift in fuel consumption will mirror the economic divide, with the wealthiest households absorbing the largest share of the increased costs,” he noted. He also stressed that the rise in Pertamax prices will have ripple effects, particularly on industries dependent on non-subsidized fuel. “Company fleets and machinery used in plantations, mining, and other sectors are now restricted from using subsidized fuel, which amplifies the financial pressure on these groups,” he explained.

Pertamina’s Assurance of Supply Stability

In response to the anticipated demand for Pertalite, Pertamina Patra Niaga has assured that the supply of the cheaper fuel will remain uninterrupted. The company’s Corporate Secretary, Roberth MV Dumatubun, emphasized the importance of consumer awareness and efficient fuel usage. “We encourage the public to purchase fuel based on their actual needs, the type of vehicle they operate, and the designated fuel type for each,” Dumatubun said.

“Our distribution network is fully operational, and Pertalite will be available at all gas stations as per government guidelines,” he added. The company’s proactive measures aim to mitigate any potential shortages while also promoting responsible consumption habits among drivers. “This approach not only safeguards supply but also aligns with broader energy conservation goals,” Dumatubun explained.

Yayan’s study also considered the behavioral economics behind fuel-switching. He argued that consumers tend to prioritize cost-effectiveness when faced with price changes, even if it means compromising on fuel quality. “The price difference between Pertamax and Pertalite is a strong incentive for budget-conscious individuals to make the switch,” he observed. However, he acknowledged that not all users would follow this trend, particularly those with limited alternatives or specialized needs.

For instance, car owners who previously filled 100 liters of Pertamax monthly will now face an additional Rp395,000 in expenses. In comparison, motorcycle riders using 30 liters per month will see a monthly increase of around Rp119,000. These figures underscore the growing financial impact on transportation costs, which could affect both personal and business budgets. “The cumulative effect of these changes will vary depending on vehicle type, usage patterns, and household income,” Yayan concluded.

Despite the challenges, Yayan remained optimistic about the overall resilience of the fuel market. “The transition from Pertamax to Pertalite is not just a temporary adjustment but a long-term shift in consumer behavior,” he said. He also mentioned that the government’s policy of maintaining Pertalite quotas ensures that there will be no shortage of the lower-priced fuel, even with increased demand.

Furthermore, the professor highlighted the broader implications of the price hike for the economy. “This change will test the adaptability of different income groups and may lead to a more equitable distribution of fuel costs,” he noted. He also suggested that the government could use this as an opportunity to refine its subsidy policies, ensuring they better align with the needs of the most vulnerable populations.

As the price adjustment takes effect, industry experts are closely monitoring the market’s reaction. While some consumers may immediately switch to Pertalite, others could delay the transition due to factors like habit, vehicle compatibility, or long-term cost savings. Yayan’s projection serves as a valuable reference point, but the actual outcome will depend on a combination of economic, social, and behavioral factors. “The data provides a clear trend, but real-world outcomes will require continuous observation,” he stated.

In addition to consumer behavior, Yayan’s analysis also addressed the environmental and economic trade-offs of the price hike. “While the shift to Pertalite may reduce the financial burden on some households, it could also impact the demand for higher-octane fuels like Pertamax,” he explained. “This could lead to a reevaluation of fuel efficiency and consumption patterns in the long run.”

Overall, the Pertamax price increase has sparked a debate about fuel affordability and its role in shaping consumer choices. As the market adjusts, the balance between convenience, cost, and quality will continue to influence how Indonesians manage their fuel expenses. Yayan’s insights offer a critical perspective on the social and economic consequences of such policy changes, highlighting the need for targeted support to ensure equitable access to energy resources.

Read more about Teddy’s analysis on Indonesia’s non-subsidized fuel prices in comparison to international markets here. Stay updated with the latest news from Tempo on Google News.