BRIN Alerts Drought Risk as El Nino Enters Moderate Phase

BRIN Alerts Drought Risk as El Nino Enters Moderate Phase

Tempatdonasi.com – According to Tempo.CO, Jakarta, the El Niño phenomenon—marked by increased sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific—has transitioned into a moderate phase. On June 21, the temperature deviation in the region surpassed 1.1°C, signaling a notable intensification. This development has raised concerns among climate experts, as the pattern’s escalation could lead to significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts.

El Niño’s Progression Confirmed by BRIN Expert

Erma Yulihastin, a climatologist at BRIN’s Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, confirmed on June 25 that the El Niño event has evolved from a weak to a moderate phase, as forecasted. She cited NOAA’s Niño 3.4 index, which tracks the three-month average of sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Based on this model, the trend suggests a continued rise in El Niño strength, with forecasts indicating the anomaly could peak at 2°C in the coming weeks.

Erma pointed out that the temperature deviation had risen from 0.8°C to 0.9°C by June 14, underscoring the swift progression of the event. At that point, she emphasized another key observation: the 2026 El Niño is displaying sub-surface heat anomalies akin to those in 1997 and a spatial configuration similar to 2015. “El Niño 2026 = 1997 + 2015,” she warned in a social media post, highlighting the potential for this year’s event to surpass historical precedents.

BMKG Updates on Temperature Anomalies

The BMKG’s recent analysis, published on June 23, indicated that the Niño 3.4 region’s temperature anomaly is at +1.61°C over a decade, while monthly data shows +1.00°C. This data aligns with BRIN’s findings, reinforcing the likelihood of El Niño’s intensification. The agency explained that the decadal average reflects long-term warming trends, while the monthly anomaly underscores immediate climate shifts.

Experts caution that such temperature spikes can disrupt normal weather patterns, leading to prolonged dry spells and heightened risk of drought. The BMKG has already begun issuing early warnings for meteorological drought during the third ten-day period of June (June 20–30), targeting specific regions. These alerts are categorized into two levels: Alert and Warning, depending on the severity of expected conditions.

Regions at Risk: Alert and Warning Statuses

Regions designated under Alert status span across Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, and Maluku. Meanwhile, BMKG indicated that areas in Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Papua require heightened drought warnings. The Alert classification typically means drier-than-normal conditions are likely, while the Warning status suggests a more severe risk of prolonged water shortages.

BMKG’s report highlights the spatial variability of El Niño’s effects. While some regions may experience moderate impacts, others are projected to face more extreme conditions. This disparity is attributed to differences in local geography, rainfall patterns, and vegetation cover. For instance, areas with already arid climates are more vulnerable to the additional stress of El Niño’s heat wave.

Historical Precedents and Future Projections

Erma’s analysis draws parallels between the current El Niño and historical events, such as the 1997 and 2015 phenomena. These past instances were marked by widespread droughts, agricultural losses, and increased wildfire activity. The 2026 event, however, is expected to be more intense due to its unique characteristics. The combination of sub-surface heat propagation and the spatial structure observed in earlier years suggests a heightened potential for extreme weather outcomes.

Climate models predict that the 2026 El Niño could escalate into a super phase, which would amplify its effects globally. This phase is characterized by even greater temperature anomalies and more pronounced disruptions to monsoon systems. In Southeast Asia, the primary concern is the disruption of the rainy season, which could lead to crop failures and water supply shortages.

BMKG’s updated forecasts emphasize the need for proactive measures to mitigate El Niño’s impacts. The agency has urged local governments to implement water rationing and monitor soil moisture levels in vulnerable areas. Additionally, farmers are advised to adopt drought-resistant agricultural practices, such as crop diversification and improved irrigation techniques, to reduce the risk of yield loss.

Erma’s warning also underscores the importance of early preparation. “El Niño 2026 = 1997 + 2015,” she stated in a post, stressing that the current event could mirror or even exceed the severity of previous occurrences. This comparison is based on both the temperature anomalies and the spatial distribution of heat patterns, which are critical factors in determining the extent of drought risk.

Broader Implications and Climate Resilience

The moderate phase of El Niño is not merely a regional concern but a global one, as its effects can ripple across continents. In Indonesia, the primary impact is felt in agriculture, which relies heavily on seasonal rainfall. The BMKG’s drought alerts serve as a critical warning for farmers and policymakers, highlighting the urgency of climate resilience strategies.

For more on Indonesia’s strategies to counter El Niño’s agricultural effects, see the related article. Stay updated with the latest news from Tempo on Google News